Currency Market Report – 1st June 🇬🇧 GBP/USD: Sterling Surges on Soft US Manufacturing Data and Fed’s Decision The GBP/USD pair experienced significant gains on 1st June, as the British pound soared against the US dollar. 📈 Soft US manufacturing data and the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold off on a rate hike provided a boost to the sterling, pushing the pair above the key resistance level of 1.2500. The optimistic sentiment surrounding the British pound reflects market participants’ confidence in the UK’s economic recovery and the prospects of a strong rebound. 🇺🇸 USD: Dovish Fed Comments Weigh on the US Dollar The US dollar faced pressure on 1st June, as dovish comments from the Federal Reserve contributed to its weakness against major currencies. 😔 The Fed’s decision to maintain its accommodative stance and refrain from tightening monetary policy in the near term diminished the appeal of the US dollar. Additionally, disappointing US economic data, particularly in the manufacturing sector, further dampened the currency’s performance. 🇬🇧🇪🇺 GBP/EUR: Relative Stability Amid Sterling and Euro Dynamics The GBP/EUR pair witnessed relative stability on 1st June, with its movements influenced by the performance of both the British pound and the euro against the US dollar. 🤝 The exchange rate remained within a range as market participants monitored developments in both the UK and the Eurozone. The pair’s stability reflects the balancing forces of economic factors, monetary policies, and market sentiment driving the pound and the euro. 🇨🇳 Chinese Yuan (CNY): Impact of Hong Kong Stocks and China’s Recovery In regional developments, the Chinese yuan attracted attention as market participants assessed the influence of fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market and the overall state of China’s economic recovery. 📊 The stocks of leading Chinese e-commerce companies, including Alibaba and JD.com, provided support to Hong Kong stocks, amid expectations of government stimulus measures. However, concerns emerged as China’s economic recovery showed signs of losing steam, leading to cautious sentiment. The performance of the Chinese yuan was closely monitored, reflecting the evolving market conditions in China. Looking ahead, the currency market will continue to be influenced by a range of factors, including central bank policies, economic indicators, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment. Traders and investors should remain informed about the latest news and developments that may impact the currency market, including regional dynamics such as those in China. Source: https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3222532/alibaba-jdcom-lift-hong-kong-stocks-six-month-low-stimulus-bets-china-recovery-loses-steam-yuan https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-gains-momentum-as-dovish-fed-comments-and-weak-us-data-drive-usd-lower-202306011645 https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-keeps-the-bid-bias-unchanged-above-10700-looks-at-us-ism-202306011318 https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-soars-past-12500-on-soft-us-manufacturing-data-fed-skipping-hike-202306011535 https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-sticks-to-modest-gains-around-mid-12400s-just-below-two-week-top-post-us-adp-202306011228 and https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-to-enjoy-further-gains-toward-the-mid-125s-on-sustained-break-above-12460-70-scotiabank-202306011212 https://www.investing.com/news/economy/asia-stocks-gain-as-fed-hike-bets-recede-debt-vote-eases-nerves-3095724
Global Equities, US Yields Fall Ahead of Debt Ceiling Vote
Daily Market Recap – Global Equities and US Yields Fall Daily Market Recap Global Equities, US Yields Fall Ahead of Debt Ceiling Vote Market Sentiment and Debt Ceiling Vote Global equities and U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline as risk-off sentiment dominated the markets. Investors were focused on the much-anticipated vote in Congress to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. The vote in the U.S. House of Representatives, scheduled for today, has generated uncertainties as the bill faces potential challenges in the House. With Republicans holding a slim majority, the outcome remains uncertain. These factors contributed to a cautious market sentiment and a decline in equities and yields. 😟 Market Jitters and Profit Taking The possibility of issues arising with the debt ceiling vote later tonight led to market jitters. Investors remain cautious until the final outcome is determined. Additionally, month-end profit taking activities were observed, which added to the overall apprehension in the market. This combination of factors contributed to the decline in global equities and U.S. Treasury yields. 😰 Equity and Treasury Performance On Wall Street, all three main indexes, including technology, financial, consumer discretionary, and industrial stocks, closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.79% to 32,782.5, the S&P 500 lost 0.79% to 4,172.41, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.73% at 12,922.98. The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 50 countries, and European’s main share index also experienced declines. Moreover, benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields moved lower to 3.696%. These performances indicate the prevailing risk-off sentiment and market participants’ cautious approach. 😔 US Dollar Strength and Euro’s Decline The U.S. dollar demonstrated strength, reaching a more than two-month high against major peers. This upward momentum was driven by positive job openings data, indicating persistent strength in the labor market. It raised expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in June. In contrast, the euro fell against the dollar due to weaker-than-expected inflation data. This unexpected decline in inflation reduced expectations of European Central Bank rate increases and diminished the euro’s attractiveness relative to the dollar. 😎 GBP Performance and Volatility The British pound (GBP) experienced increased volatility today. Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. debt ceiling vote and concerns over global economic growth impacted GBP’s performance. Market participants closely monitored developments in the debt ceiling vote, which influenced risk sentiment and currencies . As a result, GBP exhibited fluctuations throughout the trading session. Traders and investors remained vigilant as the outcome of the vote could have significant implications for GBP and global markets. 😯 Oil Price Decline and Demand Concerns Oil prices faced downward pressure due to concerns over weak economic data from China, the top importer. Weaker-than-expected economic data raised concerns about the demand for oil. Brent crude futures for August delivery declined by 1.02% to $72.79 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell by 0.78% to $68.92 per barrel. These developments highlight the importance of global economic factors in the oil market and the impact on pricing. 😟 Gold Stability and Monthly Performance Gold prices remained relatively stable despite the strength of the U.S. dollar. However, optimism surrounding a potential U.S. debt deal impacted the metal’s monthly performance. Gold is currently on course for its first monthly dip in three months. Market participants closely monitor gold as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against economic uncertainties. The ongoing developments in the U.S. debt ceiling vote and global economic conditions continue to influence gold’s performance. 🙂 Daily Market Recap – Global Equities and US Yields Fall Daily Market Recap Global Equities, US Yields Fall Ahead of Debt Ceiling Vote Market Sentiment and Debt Ceiling Vote Global equities and U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline as risk-off sentiment dominated the markets. Investors were focused on the much-anticipated vote in Congress to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. The vote in the U.S. House of Representatives, scheduled for today, has generated uncertainties as the bill faces potential challenges in the House. With Republicans holding a slim majority, the outcome remains uncertain. These factors contributed to a cautious market sentiment and a decline in equities and yields. Market Jitters and Profit Taking The possibility of issues arising with the debt ceiling vote later tonight led to market jitters. Investors remain cautious until the final outcome is determined. Additionally, month-end profit taking activities were observed, which added to the overall apprehension in the market. This combination of factors contributed to the decline in global equities and U.S. Treasury yields. Equity and Treasury Performance On Wall Street, all three main indexes, including technology, financial, consumer discretionary, and industrial stocks, closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.79% to 32,782.5, the S&P 500 lost 0.79% to 4,172.41, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.73% at 12,922.98. The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 50 countries, and European’s main share index also experienced declines. Moreover, benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields moved lower to 3.696%. These performances indicate the prevailing risk-off sentiment and market participants’ cautious approach. US Dollar Strength and Euro’s Decline The U.S. dollar demonstrated strength, reaching a more than two-month high against major peers. This upward momentum was driven by positive job openings data, indicating persistent strength in the labor market. It raised expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in June. In contrast, the euro fell against the dollar due to weaker-than-expected inflation data. This unexpected decline in inflation reduced expectations of European Central Bank rate increases and diminished the euro’s attractiveness relative to the dollar. Oil Price Decline and Gold Price Stability Oil prices experienced a decline amid concerns of weak demand following disappointing economic data from China, the top importer of oil. The data indicated a sputtering recovery in China, adding to worries about global economic growth. Brent crude futures for August delivery were down 1.02% to $72.79 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 0.78% to $68.92 per barrel. On the other hand, gold prices remained relatively stable despite
Market Update: European Stocks and US Dollar Fall
European stocks and the U.S. dollar fell, after climbing to a two-month high, on Tuesday as relief that the U.S. government had averted a possible default gave way to concern that the deal could face a rocky path through Congress. Longer-dated U.S. Treasuries rallied as traders welcomed the deal to suspend Washington’s borrowing limit until January 2025 in exchange for caps on spending and cuts in government programmes. But the dollar and European stocks slipped, dented by uncertainty about whether Congress will approve the deal after a handful of hard-right Republican lawmakers said on Monday they would oppose the bill, though it is expected to pass. Despite the initial risk-on sentiment on the deal announced on Saturday, investors also fear now that the agreement was a compromise that could have negative consequences. JB Were analysts said there could be up to $600 billion worth of bill issuance in the next six to eight weeks. The size of the Treasury issuance and the economic implications are now being considered, according to Invesco’s Asia Pacific global strategist David Chao. “The announcement of a debt deal in the near term is a boost to market sentiment but it places pressure on growth due to the government spending cuts, the tighter liquidity conditions. But the flip side is the pressure on growth is doing the job for the Fed as it tries to cool the economy. It could place a dampening effect on inflation.” The pan European STOXX 600 index fell 0.2% after recording on Friday its biggest weekly decline in two months. U.S. futures were up 0.5% pointing to a start of the day in positive territory for U.S. stocks, which were closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. U.S. 10-year bond yields dropped 9.7 basis points to 3.72%, while 30-year yields fell 8 bps to 3.89%. Bond yields move inversely to price. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six peers, fell 0.26% at 104.03 after rising to a two-month high in earlier trading. It was also trading near a six-month peak against the Chinese yuan. The yen rose 0.25% against the dollar to 140.08, bouncing back from a six-month low, after Japan’s top finance diplomat Masato Kanda said authorities were closely watching foreign exchange market moves and would “respond appropriately”. The Nikkei stock index rose 0.4%, after the Japanese benchmark hit a 33-year high on Monday on optimism over the U.S debt deal and a weaker yen, which helps the country’s exporters. CHINA POST LOCKDOWNS Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost around 6.5% in May while the CSI300 is off almost 5% as a result of China’s economy not recovering from its pandemic closures as fast as expected. The two indexes closed slightly higher on the day after hitting November lows earlier with investors also remaining cautious ahead of China’s May manufacturing data due on Wednesday. “Everyone is looking at the disappointment in the performance of China equities recently and that is now creating negative investor sentiment,” said Jack Siu, Credit Suisse’s greater China chief investment officer. “Investors are now more muted towards the reopening story of China and are contemplating their positions.” Elsewhere, euro zone bond yields fell after Spanish inflation data came in lower than expected, raising hopes that the European Central Bank may raise interest rates less than previously feared. The Turkish lira slipped further to a fresh record low after President Tayyip Erdogan secured victory in the country’s presidential election on Sunday. GBP/USD eyes additional gains towards the upper 1.24s in the short run – Scotiabank NEWS | 5/30/2023 12:11:28 PM GMT | By FXStreet Insights Team Share: Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Copy to clipboard Sterling is the top-performer on the session as shop price data shows further gain. Economists at Scotiabank expect the GBP/USD pair to test the upper 1.24s. UK shop prices continue to surge “The BRC’s survey of shop prices reached 9% in May (a record) suggesting no relenting from the upward push in prices and reinforcing expectations that the BoE has more – perhaps quite a bit more – work to do.” “Strong intraday bidding for the Pound leaves a positive impression on the short-term chart.” “Congestion/retracement resistance stands at 1.2450/1.2495.” GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bulls move in to take control NEWS | 5/30/2023 5:55:52 PM GMT | By Ross J Burland Share: Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Copy to clipboard GBP/USD bulls are taking back control on a break of structure. The rally has taken out the bearish trendline resistance. Sterling rose against a weaker dollar on Tuesday as British inflation remains in focus. This has forced the price higher and placed the bulls back in control as the following analysis will illustrate GBP/USD: Support around the 1.2275/2300 area may hold temporarily – ING NEWS | 5/30/2023 9:19:11 AM GMT | By FXStreet Insights Team Share: Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Copy to clipboard Economists at ING discuss EUR/GBP and GBP/USD outlooks. EUR/GBP can probably press support at 0.8650 “UK data is doing the most of the talking and it will probably be the jobs/wages data (13 June) or the May CPI data (21 June) which will be the key determinant on whether the market reins in aggressive tightening expectations.” “Until then, EUR/GBP can probably press support at 0.8650, below which 0.8600/8610 is the next target. GBP/USD can better resist the stronger Dollar. Support around the 1.2275/2300 area may hold temporarily.” GBP/USD climbs to fresh daily high, around 1.2375 area amid subdued USD demand NEWS | 5/30/2023 9:00:15 AM GMT | By Haresh Menghani Share: Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Copy to clipboard GBP/USD gains some positive traction for the third straight day, though lacks follow-through. Hawkish BoE expectations underpin the GBP and lend support amid subdued USD price action. Bets for more Fed rate hikes to limit the USD losses and cap any meaningful gains for the major. The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buying near the 1.2325 region on Tuesday
Market Update: European Stocks and US Dollar Fall
Market Update: European Stocks and Dollar Fall Amid Debt Deal Concerns Market Update: European Stocks and Dollar Fall Amid Debt Deal Concerns 📉 European stocks and the U.S. dollar fell on Tuesday, following a two-month high, as relief over the U.S. government averting a possible default gave way to concerns about the deal’s path through Congress. Key Highlights: 💰 Longer-dated U.S. Treasuries rallied as traders welcomed the deal to suspend Washington’s borrowing limit until January 2025, in exchange for spending caps and government program cuts. 💸 However, uncertainty about Congress’ approval of the deal, after opposition from some hard-right Republican lawmakers, caused the dollar and European stocks to slip. 🔒 Investors fear that the agreement, although initially seen as positive, could have negative consequences as it was a compromise. 💼 JB Were analysts predict up to $600 billion worth of bill issuance in the next six to eight weeks. 🌍 The size of the Treasury issuance and its economic implications are being carefully considered. 💡 The debt deal boosts market sentiment but puts pressure on growth due to government spending cuts and tighter liquidity conditions. It may have a dampening effect on inflation. 📉 The pan European STOXX 600 index fell 0.2% following its largest weekly decline in two months. 📈 U.S. futures were up 0.5%, indicating a positive start for U.S. stocks after the Memorial Day holiday. 📉 U.S. 10-year bond yields dropped 9.7 basis points to 3.72%, while 30-year yields fell 8 basis points to 3.89%. 💱 The dollar index fell 0.26% at 104.03 after rising to a two-month high, also trading near a six-month peak against the Chinese yuan. 📈 The yen rose 0.25% against the dollar to 140.08, bouncing back from a six-month low. 📈 The Nikkei stock index rose 0.4% as the U.S. debt deal and weaker yen boosted optimism. 🇨🇳 Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and CSI300 closed slightly higher after hitting November lows earlier, with cautious investor sentiment ahead of China’s May manufacturing data. 💼 Credit Suisse’s chief investment officer highlighted negative investor sentiment towards recent China equities performance. 🇪🇺 Eurozone bond yields fell after lower-than-expected Spanish inflation data, raising hopes of a less aggressive interest rate increase by the European Central Bank. 💰 The Turkish lira slipped further to a fresh record low following President Tayyip Erdogan’s election victory. GBP/USD Eyes Additional Gains 📰 Economists at Scotiabank expect the GBP/USD pair to test the upper 1.24s as UK shop prices continue to surge. GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bulls Move In to Take Control 📰 GBP/USD bulls are taking back control as the rally breaks the bearish trendline resistance. GBP/USD Climbs to Fresh Daily High 📰 GBP/USD gains traction for the third straight day as hawkish BoE expectations underpin the GBP and USD demand remains subdued. GBP/USD Outlook: Temporary Support Expected 📰 ING economists discuss EUR/GBP and GBP/USD outlooks, highlighting temporary support around the 1.2275/2300 area. GBP/USD Subdued USD Demand 📰 GBP/USD attracts dip-buying as subdued USD demand and UK inflation figures support the British Pound. Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, FXStreet
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Market Sentiment 10 December 2022
GBP/USD: Flirting with 1.2300 ahead of the Bank of England’s decision December 9, 2022 Stocks waver post PPI and UMich survey, Oil jumps, Gold shines and Bitcoin anchored at $17k December 9, 2022 WTI Price Analysis: Crude Oil sits at its lowest for the year December 9, 2022 Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary December 9, 2022 Consumers Don’t Know What to Think December 9, 2022 Indices steady despite US PPI rise December 9, 2022 Fed’s Powell to push back against rate cuts in 2023 – Rabobank December 9, 2022 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD could find support on reduced rate hike expectations – Commerzbank December 9, 2022 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Buyers maintain the pressure ahead of the weekly close December 9, 2022 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD’s technical outlook suggests a bullish bias remains intact December 9, 2022 Trading opportunities: Forex, commodities, indices and crypto December 9, 2022 GBP/USD to see a correction lower rather than a fresh collapse – HSBC December 9, 2022 Gold Price Weekly Forecast: Fed dot plot to trigger next big action in XAU/USD December 9, 2022 GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Pound Sterling looks north, gearing up for a critical week December 9, 2022 Will Santa Claus save Gold from bearish prospects? December 9, 2022 EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: US Federal Reserve’s and European Central Bank’s last shots December 9, 2022 Four key differences between Gold and Silver – Morgan Stanley December 9, 2022 US: UoM Consumer Confidence Index improves to 59.1 in December vs. 53.3 expected December 9, 2022 Telltale sign December 9, 2022 The historical juncture in the EU may signal stabilization of commodities and the Euro December 9, 2022 Japanese Yen Struggles Against a US Dollar Finding Firmer Footing. Higher USD/JPY? December 8, 2022 The Japanese Yen dipped today as GDP weighs and the US Dollar regains its ascendency with building concern for a significant slowdown next year. Where to for USD/JPY? The US Dollar Gripped the Ascendency as Risks of Recession Swirl. Will USD go Higher? December 7, 2022 The US Dollar held on to overnight gains as markets recalibrate risks of an economic slowdown in the West against a re-opening of China. Will the DXY index (USD) rally? Crude Oil Ponders Course as Markets Fear the Return of the Fed. Lower WTI? December 6, 2022 The Euro backed away from parity again after the US Dollar ascendency got back on track after the Federal Reserve got its message across loud and clear. Where to for EUR/USD? Euro Hits a High Note Amid China Re-opening Hopes and OPEC+. Where to for EUR/USD? December 5, 2022 The Euro has run higher after the US Dollar collapsed again today amid a strong jobs number, OPEC+ news and China potentially re-opening. Will this drive EUR/USD higher? Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY? December 1, 2022 The Japanese Yen continued higher against the US Dollar today as the market has deciphered Fed Chair Powell’s comments are not as hawkish as had been feared. Where to for USD/JPY? US Dollar Slides Ahead of Fed Chair Comments While Equities Weigh Growth Prospects November 30, 2022 The US Dollar is on the back foot again ahead of commentary from the Federal Reserve Chair. If the Fed remains hawkish, will the market listen and it rescue the USD (DXY) Index? Euro Fights Back Against a Tumultuous US Dollar Caught Between Risk and a Hawkish Fed November 29, 2022 The Euro clawed back some gains after the US Dollar ascendency was questioned despite the Federal Reserve reminding markets of their intention. If the US dollar gets traction, will EUR/USD make a new low? Australian Dollar Blitzed by China Covid Concerns Souring Sentiment. Where to for AUD/USD? November 28, 2022 The Australian Dollar is under pressure again after the US Dollar reclaimed the ascendency amid a market rout as China faces domestic heat over continuing Covid-19 related lockdowns. US Dollar Nosedives Post Fed Meeting Minutes. Will the USD (DXY) Index Push Lower? November 24, 2022 The US Dollar descended for the third day in a row after Federal Reserve meeting minutes were interpreted as dovish by the market. Has the DXY lost its ascendency? British Pound Pauses as US Dollar Takes Stock of Fed Outlook. Will GBP/USD go Higher? November 23, 2022 The British Pound is anchored near the top end this week’s range after US Dollar gave some ground overnight with the focus on the Fed’s pace of tightening. Where to for GBP/USD? Euro Firmed as the US Dollar Paused Amid Fed and China Factors. Where to for EUR/USD? November 22, 2022 The Euro finally found some traction today after Monday’s rout that saw EUR/USD slide lower on comments from Fed speakers and China growth concerns. Will EUR/USD continue slipping? US Dollar Finds Firmer Footing as Treasury Yields Lift and China Locks Down November 21, 2022 The US Dollar resumed ascending to start the week after Treasury yields added a few basis points and global growth woes undermined other currencies. Will the DXY index continue higher? Australian Dollar Filleted by Fedspeak as US Dollar Resumes Ascendency November 18, 2022 The Australian Dollar came under pressure today after the US Dollar got a boost from Fed speakers reminding markets of their intentions for rates. Will a strong USD send AUD lower? Euro Pauses as US Dollar Underpinned by Fed on Sturdy Data Ahead of EU CPI November 17, 2022 The Euro made a 4-month high earlier in the week against the US Dollar on a soft US PPI, but overnight data and Fed rhetoric has seen a pause in the meteoric rise. Will EUR/USD go higher? Japanese Yen Slides Despite Treasury Yield Dip on Soft PPI and Conflict Concerns November 16, 2022 The Japanese Yen has dipped again after the US Dollar gained despite a soft PPI amid heightened geopolitical tensions after a missile explosion in Poland. Where to for USD/JPY? Euro Rides High as US Dollar Ponders the Path Ahead with Fed and G-20
FX Market Highlights 10 December 2022
Dollar Forecast Loaded with Volatility Potential but Can It Find a Trend? December 10, 2022 The week ahead is jam-packed with high profile US event risk – anchored by the top listing of a FOMC rate decision. The Dollar is significantly off its multi-decade highs after two months of choppy retreat, but is there enough oomph in what’s ahead to produce an outright bear trend…or perhaps spur recovery? John Kicklighter GBP Weekly Outlook: Resilient Pound Prepares for Data Heavy Week December 10, 2022 GBP/USD trades on the precipice of a key technical pattern that could be prompted by next week’s Fed and Bank of England (BoE) rate decisions. Warren Venketas Australian Dollar Outlook: US Dollar Remains in the Driver Seat for AUD/USD December 10, 2022 The Australian Dollar recovered from a sell-off against the US Dollar throughout the week, but it had little to do with the RBA hike. If the Fed delivers on their tightening, Will AUD/USD rally? Daniel McCarthy Last S&P 500 and Dollar Volatility Charge of 2023 with FOMC, CPI and Much More December 9, 2022 The wait is over. We are moving into perhaps the densest week of macroeconomic event risk of the fourth quarter…and what also may prove the last charge of volatility for 2023. With event risk like the FOMC, ECB and BOE rate decisions; US and UK CPI and so much more; what is possible between fundamentals, […] John Kicklighter S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Outlook – Thumb Twiddling Ahead of The Fed December 9, 2022 US equity markets are biding their time ahead of next week’s significant data releases and events Nick Cawley Michigan Consumer Sentiment Rises: Business Conditions Improve, Inflation Cools December 9, 2022 Inflation expectations dropped to the lowest levels in the last 15 months while business conditions for 2023 rose by 14% as consumer optimism rises Richard Snow How to Read a Candlestick Chart December 9, 2022 Learn how to read and interpret candlestick charts for day trading, with top strategies and tips. David Bradfield US Dollar (DXY) Outlook – One Last US Data Drop Before CPI and FOMC Next Week December 9, 2022 With traders already looking ahead to next week’s all-important CPI number and FOMC decision, today’s PPI and Michigan Confidence releases should not be disregarded. Nick Cawley A Guide to Trading Psychology December 9, 2022 The psychology of trading is often overlooked but is a key part of a professional trader’s skillset. Richard Snow Crude Oil Forecast: Brent Overcome by Recessionary Pressures Despite Several Fundamental Tailwinds December 9, 2022 Brent crude oil looks to further clarity around supply and demand factors while the USD looks to push higher ahead of FOMC next week. Warren Venketas USD/CHF IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their most net-long USD/CHF since Nov 17 when USD/CHF traded near 0.95. December 9, 2022 Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CHF-bearish contrarian trading bias. Research US 500 IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long US 500 for the first time since Nov 22, 2022 when US 500 traded near 4,003.91. December 6, 2022 Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger US 500-bearish contrarian trading bias. Research USD/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long USD/JPY for the first time since Nov 14, 2022 when USD/JPY traded near 140.09. December 1, 2022 Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/JPY-bearish contrarian trading bias. Research GBP/USD IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their least net-long GBP/USD since Nov 23 when GBP/USD traded near 1.21. December 1, 2022 Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias. Research NZD/USD IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-short NZD/USD for the first time since Jun 10, 2022 when NZD/USD traded near 0.64. December 1, 2022 Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias. Research FTSE 100 IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their least net-long FTSE 100 since Apr 11 when FTSE 100 traded near 7,595.20. November 30, 2022 Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger FTSE 100-bullish contrarian trading bias. Research Oil – US Crude IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their most net-long Oil – US Crude since Sep 27 when Oil – US Crude traded near 77.23. November 18, 2022 Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil – US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias. Research AUD/USD IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-short AUD/USD for the first time since Aug 15, 2022 when AUD/USD traded near 0.70. November 14, 2022 Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias. Research EUR/USD IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-short EUR/USD for the first time since Oct 27, 2022 when EUR/USD traded near 1.00. November 7, 2022 Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias. Research USD/CAD IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long USD/CAD for the first time since Oct 27, 2022 18:00 GMT when USD/CAD traded near 1.36. November 4, 2022 Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current
UK bonds extended gains after the news of Sunak’s election
On the 24th local time, the results of the British ruling Conservative Party leadership election were released. Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, as the only candidate, was automatically elected as the new leader of the British Conservative Party. This will also be the first Asian Prime Minister in British history. Just last night, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson issued a statement announcing his withdrawal from the Conservative Party leadership race, becoming the biggest turning point in this election. After the highly-voiced Johnson withdrew, Sunak, who has announced his candidacy, has greatly increased the probability of becoming prime minister. British government bonds extended gains after the news of Sunak’s election, with the 10-year bond yield falling 27 basis points to 3.78%. The UK 30-year bond yield fell to 3.76% at one point, below its Sept. 22 close. Image Judging by the performance of the bond market, investors hope that Sunak can restore credibility to economic decision-making and help stabilize Britain’s volatile markets. In addition, according to the British Sky News on the 24th, Sunak delivered a speech at the British Conservative Party headquarters that day. Sunak reportedly began his speech by praising Truss, saying she “dedicated herself to the public service” of the country under “extremely difficult circumstances” and said that being elected prime minister was “the greatest honor of my life”. Second generation of Indian immigrants Sunak was born in Southampton, England, in 1980 to Indian immigrants. His father worked in medicine and his mother ran her own independent pharmacy, thus providing him with good financial conditions. The BBC said that Sunak received a British aristocratic education. He studied at Winchester, one of the most expensive boarding schools in the UK, and then entered Oxford University to study philosophy, politics and economics, and then at Stanford University. Obtained a master’s degree in business administration. In 2015, Sunak entered the political arena after being elected to the Conservative Party. He became the British Chancellor of the Exchequer on February 13, 2020. At the age of 39, he became one of the youngest Chancellors of the Exchequer in British history. On July 5, 2022, Sunak announced his resignation from the government after losing confidence in the leadership of then Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Sunak lost 14% of the vote to Truss in the last Conservative Party leadership election. The victory of the Conservative Party leader this time also means that Sunak will become Britain’s fifth prime minister in six years. or face many challenges Currently, the UK is struggling with higher inflation, a deteriorating economy and political instability. From April to July 2022, inflation in the UK hit a record high in 40 years, and the consumer price index (CPI) in September rose by 10.1% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in nearly 40 years. Ian Berg, a professor at the Institute of European Studies at the London School of Economics, pointed out that a series of events in the past few months have shown great divisions within the Conservative Party: “Change prime ministers, change ministers, make decisions and then withdraw quickly, British politics There’s a farce going on… that’s not what government should be like.” Next, Sunak will lead this severely divided country to move forward hard. The United Kingdom is currently facing a serious energy crisis, economic crisis, and political crisis. Therefore, he must first restore stability to this turbulent country. The outside world noticed that Sunak made it clear that curbing inflation was a top priority, promising to “fix the economy.” Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics, said that in terms of market impact, the new prime minister is unlikely to risk angering the market again, such as by seeking tax cuts or increased public spending, but will continue to implement the incumbent Fiscal austerity policy proposed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Goodwin noted that the coherence of economic policy is likely to be clarified in the latest round of fiscal announcements on October 31. But it’s also bad for the UK economy. “The tax burden will now be higher than previously expected, putting more pressure on households whose real incomes have fallen. With the economy facing a recession, tax increases and public spending restrictions have the potential to make the economy even weaker. “
Is the new UK PM keeping Jeremy Hunt?
Rishi Sunak will meet King Charles and address the nation from Downing Street as he becomes prime minister tomorrow morning. Mr Sunak promised to bring “stability” and “unity” to the United Kingdom after being crowned as the new Conservative party leader this afternoon. BBG: Sunak Expected to Keep Hunt, Tap Allies for New UK Cabinet People familiar with matter comment on talks on appointments New Tory leader promises government of ‘all the talents’ What we already know: Who is Jeremy Hunt, Britain’s new chancellor of the Exchequer? His selection for the post appeared intended to restore calm to financial markets. Jeremy Hunt, who was appointed Britain’s chancellor of the Exchequer on Friday, is a former foreign minister and a pragmatist from the ideological center ground of conservative politics. The selection of a moderate with government experience appeared intended to restore calm to financial markets. Prime Minister Liz Truss of Britain named him to replace Kwasi Kwarteng, whom she had fired the same day, cutting short his tenure after just 38 days on the job and after he had introduced a tax plan that backfired and rattled financial markets. The dizzying speed of the turnover in a post that is normally associated with measured, and sometimes staid, authority sent a jolt through British politics, sharpening criticism of Ms. Truss from within her own party. Speaking at a news conference, Ms. Truss called Mr. Hunt “one of the most experienced and widely respected government ministers and parliamentarians — and he shares my convictions and ambitions for our country.” Mr. Hunt, who studied philosophy, politics and economics at Oxford University and was head boy at one of Britain’s leading private schools, was among the candidates to lead the party in 2019, finishing second to Boris Johnson, who then became prime minister. When Mr. Johnson himself resigned in July, Mr. Hunt ran again but was eliminated in the first round of the leadership fight, gaining just 18 votes from conservative colleagues. He went on to endorse Rishi Sunak, Mr. Johnson’s chancellor, for leader. The contest was eventually won by Ms. Truss. Scroll back up to restore default view. What we don’t know: Is Rishi appointing Jeremy Hunt as the next Chancellor? As we know Rishi himself has servied the UK as the chancellor of the Exchequer before. Would Jeremy be comfortable working with someone who has more experience in the job than he did? Rishi Sunak was educated at Winchester College, read philosophy, politics and economics (PPE) at Lincoln College, Oxford, and gained an MBA from Stanford University. As a son of a senior officer in the Royal Navy, Jeremy Hunt was born in Kennington and studied Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at Magdalen College, Oxford, where he was President of the Oxford University Conservative Association. He was first elected to the House of Commons in 2005, and was promoted to the Shadow Cabinet as Shadow Minister for Disabled People and later as Shadow Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport. Hunt served in the Coalition Government as Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport from 2010 to 2012, where he led the drive for local TV, resulting in Ofcom awarding local TV broadcasting licences in respect of several cities and towns. Hunt also oversaw the 2012 London Olympics, which received widespread acclaim. His previous business interests have seen him become one of the UK’s richest politicians. Source: wikipedia When the members of the Norwich & District Association of Estate Agents were asked the following questions: If he stays in post, what difference do you think Jeremy Hunt as new chancellor will make? “Well, he can’t do worse than his predecessor,” says Ben Marchbank of Bedfords. Jan Hÿtch of Arnolds Keys says that who is in the chancellor’s chair is less vital than a sensible fiscal policy emerging. “As with the merry-go-round of housing ministers, policy and continuity is far more important than personalities.” Nicholas Taylor of Hadley Taylor says that Jeremy Hunt will steady the ship, although “it’s very concerning that the markets and the Bank of England now seem to be dictating our economic policy.” Jan Hÿtch is residential partner at Arnolds Keys – Credit: Arnolds Keys What does the change in stamp duty mean for buyers? Does it depend on what you’re buying? “Buyers can expect to save a maximum of £2,500 – which is relatively small in relation to the additional annual mortgage costs that we’ve been experiencing,” says Natalie Howlett-Clarke of Savills. “As the stamp duty cut is permanent, it is unlikely to bring the same level of urgency to the market as the recent stamp duty holiday.” Jan Hÿtch adds: “It’s a shame that the opportunity of saving money on stamp duty has come at the same time as an increase in month-to-month mortgage payments for first-time buyers. “We have not seen a significant upturn in first-time buyer enquiries since the announcement, probably for this reason.” Nicholas Taylor says that interest rates rising shouldn’t be a surprise – Credit: Getty Images/iStockphoto Interest rates are rising. What does this mean for the housing market? “Interest rates have been rising since December, so higher rates shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone,” says Nicholas Taylor. “Younger people will be spooked by higher rates because they’ve never seen ‘normal’ rates before. Higher rates will halt price inflation and we will see prices drop a little – although premium properties and locations will fare better.” Ben Marchbank adds: “Before Gordon Brown handed responsibility for monetary policy to the Bank of England, the chancellor set the base rate, and it was commonly used as a lever to control the housing market. Whilst it is no longer the chancellor wielding the lever, the mechanism remains effective, and we expect to see a drop in demand.” Natalie Howlett-Clarke, of Savills, says that if mortgage rates hit the levels currently being priced in money markets, there could be considerable financial strain on borrowers – Credit: Savills, edp24 Voices: If at first you don’t succeed: What sort of prime minister will Rishi Sunak be? Andrew
Sunak. And what happens next?
Just now, the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom was announced – former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, after the retreat of many competitors, successfully entered No. 10 Downing Street and became the first Prime Minister of Indian descent in the United Kingdom. BBC: Sunak becomes UK’s first Asian prime minister The Times: Sunak tells Conservatives: Unite or die The Guardian: Sunak warns Britain will face severe economic challenges, and he promises to be an honest prime minister The descendants of the Indians became the prime ministers of the British, which is quite a bit of anti-customer-oriented and anti-export. Coincidentally, today is Diwali, the festival of lights in India, so the Indian people are also happy. Reuters: Indians rejoice as new PM Sunak offers Diwali blessings Also happy, there is the BBC anchor. Just last night, Master Bao, who was preparing to enter the palace for the second time, retreated, making Sunak a steady victory today. The anchor was happily announcing the news of Xiao Chuan’s exit, and the picture was cut. In this way, in less than two months, the British government has changed another group of people, but in order to avoid excessive adjustment, Hunter should still continue to be the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary who resigned last week, is likely to return to renew his post. , and Penny Mordaunt, who competed with Sunak until the last minute, may become foreign minister. In his first Prime Minister’s speech, Sunak succinctly stated that “Britain is a great country, but it faces a serious crisis”. “I want to fix our economy, unite the Conservative Party, and benefit the country,” Sunak tweeted. Just a few months ago, when he resigned to force Boris, he mentioned the severe challenges facing the UK in his resignation letter: Our country is facing immense challenges. We both want a low-tax, high-growth economy, and world class public services, but this can only be responsibly delivered if we are prepared to work hard, make sacrifices and take difficult decisions. (Our country There are serious challenges ahead. We all want to see a low-tax, high-growth economy, and world-class public services, but to achieve this vision responsibly, hard work, a certain amount of sacrifice, and difficult decisions are inevitable. ) I firmly believe the public are ready to hear that truth. Our people know that if something is too good to be true then it’s not true. They need to know that whlist there is a path to a better future, it is not an easy one (I firmly believe that the people are ready to face reality. The people of our country know that if a thing is too good to be true, it must not be true. The people need to know that the road to a better future is not so Easy to go.) Looking back now, the UK has indeed been throwing money wildly for two years ~ wool comes from sheep. If Sunak’s road to prime minister can at least last longer than the shelf life of a cabbage, then the UK under his leadership is indeed Have to tighten the belt for a few years. Reuters: What exactly is the “pharmacy” that Sunak opened for the UK? economy At present, the UK faces a “double attack” of rising interest rates and a recession. Britain also needs to restore its credibility with international investors after the previous leadership’s rash mini-budget. At the same time, the Russian-Ukrainian war further pushed up the cost of energy and food, thereby increasing the pressure on people’s lives~ To sum up: there are many problems, and each solution may make other problems more serious >_< To balance a budget shortfall exacerbated by rising borrowing costs due to the crisis, Sunak will likely need to cut spending and raise taxes. On October 31, Sunak or Treasurer Hunter will further explain this. At the same time, winter is coming, and the government is obliged to help those most affected by austerity to tide over the difficulties… Then another money-spending plan. Image What everyone can’t forget is that – due to the cost of Covid-19… the UK is under the heaviest tax pressure since the 1950s. As for how long the high taxes will last… Sunak, criticizing the boastful small budget, pointed out that “it should be after the UK has brought inflation under control”, and said that by 2029, the income tax will be reduced from 20% to 16% %. politics Analysts pointed out that the serious division of opinion within the Conservative Party is one of the key reasons for the departure of Master Bao and Truss. If Sunak does not solve this problem, he will not escape the end of the game. The two most divided topics are Brexit and economic policy. Needless to say about Brexit~ Even if it has already left the EU, there are still irreconcilable hard-leavers, soft-leavers and other factions in the Conservative Party. And the negotiations between the UK and the EU are still not over, so every time a meeting is needed to discuss, there are always different limbs and trunks. Sunak, himself a staunch Brexiteer, is still seen by some on the right as too sympathetic to the EU. On economic policy, some in the Conservative Party are vehemently opposed to tax hikes; others oppose spending cuts in key areas such as health and defence. How to reduce the impact of austerity policies on votes is also a difficult problem Sunak needs to solve. migrant Although Sunak reiterated that he was proud of his second-generation immigrant status whenever he was free, he was indeed a staunch supporter of immigration reduction plans. The government under his leadership will retain plans to deport illegal immigrants to Rwanda. At the same time, he raised the possibility of “taking the UK out of the European Court of Human Rights” during his summer party campaign. And the European Court of Human Rights, the body that has been blocking
